Perhaps every trader has come across the fact that the Forex price movement is incredibly difficult to determine and predict. The course is constantly changing in relation to the U.S. dollar or another currency, with regard to cross-rates.
In a special way, only those who have come to the Forex market have a hard time. Without much experience in trading, beginners search for answers in the” world wide web ” of the Internet, typing in search queries like: “How to determine the price movement on Forex?»
But in fact, there is simply no answer to this difficult question. Because the Forex market itself is a set of exchange rates, and it has no price in itself. And this applies to any market, not just the currency market. Professionals prefer to talk not about a specific price in Forex, but about the volumes, fundamental indicators, and funds being turned around in the market. We are interested in what the market is currently trending Forex or how the market will move on Forex.
So, how to determine the movement of the Forex market? Your decision on the transaction will depend directly on the answer to this question.
Forex market movement: choosing the subject of trading
We will consider the principles of market movement using examples.
For your Forex trading strategy, you can choose the exchange rate of any national currency in relation to the us dollar, for example: USD/JPY. Or choose the so-called cross-rate (this is the exchange rate of one country to the currency of another, such as EUR/GBP). If you are a novice player, the first pair will be more comfortable for trading, since there the Forex price movement is based on the Forex algorithm of currency movement within the boundaries of the dollar index. But the second pair is more independent of the dollar index. This is why cross-courses are suitable for advanced, professional traders.
Price movement: how the trading algorithm works
To make a deal on the first currency pair (we talked about it above), you need to understand that the national exchange rate changes against the dollar within the boundaries of the entire Forex market movement. The dollar acts as a “guide” that is followed by the exchange of the instruments of the trader. And if the dollar exchange rate changes on the chart, you can be sure that there will be a corresponding change in the dynamics of traded currency instruments. Therefore, it is best to choose the dollar as the leading asset, or rather its index (onlinemarketshare.com scam). For example, the currencies that are included in this index can be used as the currency that follows the dollar.
So, how do I determine the price movement in Forex using this index?
The dollar index should be calculated as a market-wide average. This indicator can be used for the Euro, British pound, Japanese yen, canadian dollar, Swiss franc, and Swedish Krona.
If you use the USDX index as a predictive tool for analyzing the exchange rate on Forex, it will be a synthetic combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
This synthesis allows a market player to successfully solve problems on how to determine the movement of the Forex market.
Fundamental analysis involves determining the” absolute ” value of the dollar. This takes into account the aspect of its compliance with other currency instruments. Professional traders know that the main role (most often) in the movements of each currency pair is played directly by the dollar.
The technical approach implies that the chart of the dollar index (or even the index of any other currency instrument) is a curve to which all known methods of technical analysis are applicable today.
How do charts work?
For example, let’s take a pair of euros and a pound. When the chart of the dollar index tends to go up, the Euro pound pair will show a decline. When the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate goes down, the Euro/pound currency instruments will go up.
If you are working with the yen, Swiss franc, or canadian dollar, then the opposite ratio will apply.
These currency instruments move within the boundaries of the dollar index. When there is a strong trend movement of the dollar, the exchange rates change co-directionally. But what should you do when there is a sideways movement in the market?
Flat on the market
In General, a market player needs to find a sideways movement of the market, or a flat, in order to refrain from taking part in trading at this moment. This will help to save the profit that the trader received earlier. Therefore, during the flat period, when there is a lack of trend movement and profit, you need to wait out the “side market” and not lose the Deposit.